EUR/USD session briefing

EUR/USD · LONDON OPEN · 21 OCT 2026

Bull case

1H holds rising lows with a HH at 1.12608 and key invalidation 1.12045 intact; daily bullish engulfing plus oversold StochRSI and a Bollinger squeeze point to a compression resolution higher, though mixed H4/Daily and bearish news cap conviction.

Bear case

Price rejected below 1.1250/100-day SMA with repeated H1 bearish engulfing and negative MACD; COT euro net-short at -23.6% and DXY firming. 1H rising lows are fragile above 1.12045; a break exposes 1.11839/1.11513.

Key levels

Support

• 1.11839
• 1.11513
• 1.11129

Resistance

• 1.12435
• 1.12666
• 1.13

Primary invalidation

A sustained break and hold above R1 (1.12435) would invalidate bearish pressure.